What is Predictive Maintenance? Condition-Based Strategy • Portable balancer, vibration analyzer "Balanset" for dynamic balancing crushers, fans, mulchers, augers on combines, shafts, centrifuges, turbines, and many others rotors What is Predictive Maintenance? Condition-Based Strategy • Portable balancer, vibration analyzer "Balanset" for dynamic balancing crushers, fans, mulchers, augers on combines, shafts, centrifuges, turbines, and many others rotors

What is Predictive Maintenance? Condition-Based Strategy

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Understanding Predictive Maintenance

Definition: What is Predictive Maintenance?

Predictive maintenance (PdM) is a maintenance strategy that uses condition monitoring data to predict when equipment failures will occur and schedule maintenance at the optimal time—after a problem is detected but before functional failure happens. PdM combines periodic or continuous measurements (vibration, temperature, oil analysis, etc.) with trend analysis and diagnostic expertise to forecast remaining useful life and time maintenance interventions to maximize equipment utilization while minimizing both maintenance costs and failure risks.

Predictive maintenance represents the evolution from reactive (run-to-failure) and preventive (fixed-schedule) maintenance to data-driven, condition-based strategies that optimize the balance between equipment reliability and maintenance expenditure, delivering typical ROI of 5-10:1 through reduced downtime, extended component life, and eliminated unnecessary maintenance.

Predictive vs. Other Maintenance Strategies

Reactive Maintenance (Run-to-Failure)

  • Approach: Repair after failure occurs
  • Cost: Lowest planned cost but highest total cost
  • Downtime: Unplanned, often extended
  • Appropriate For: Non-critical, low-cost, redundant equipment

Preventive Maintenance (Time-Based)

  • Approach: Scheduled maintenance at fixed intervals
  • Cost: Moderate, some unnecessary work
  • Downtime: Planned but may be premature
  • Issues: May replace components with remaining life or miss early failures between intervals

Predictive Maintenance (Condition-Based)

  • Approach: Maintenance when condition indicates need
  • Cost: Monitoring investment but optimal total cost
  • Downtime: Planned at optimal time
  • Benefits: Maximum equipment utilization, minimum unnecessary work

PdM Technologies and Methods

Vibration Monitoring

  • Route-based measurements with portable instruments
  • Online continuous monitoring
  • Spectral analysis and trending
  • Envelope analysis for bearings
  • Detects: unbalance, misalignment, looseness, bearing defects, gear problems

Thermography

  • Infrared camera surveys
  • Detects electrical hot spots, mechanical friction
  • Quick facility-wide screening
  • Complements vibration

Tribology (Oil Analysis)

  • Particle counting and identification
  • Wear metal analysis
  • Lubricant condition
  • Internal component condition

Ultrasonic Testing

  • Bearing condition assessment
  • Leak detection (steam, compressed air)
  • Electrical corona/arcing

Motor Current Signature Analysis

  • Electrical signature of motor condition
  • Rotor bar defects, stator problems
  • Non-invasive monitoring

PdM Program Implementation

Phase 1: Assessment and Planning

  • Equipment criticality analysis
  • Technology selection
  • Resource requirements
  • ROI justification

Phase 2: Baseline and Setup

  • Instrument acquisition
  • Personnel training
  • Baseline measurements
  • Database setup
  • Alarm limits establishment

Phase 3: Operation

  • Regular data collection
  • Analysis and trending
  • Alarm management
  • Work order generation
  • Maintenance execution

Phase 4: Optimization

  • Refine routes and frequencies
  • Adjust alarm limits
  • Expand coverage
  • Continuous improvement

Success Metrics

Reliability Metrics

  • Mean time between failures (MTBF) increase
  • Unplanned downtime reduction
  • Equipment availability improvement
  • Catastrophic failure elimination

Economic Metrics

  • Maintenance cost reduction
  • Spare parts inventory reduction
  • Production loss avoidance
  • ROI calculation

Operational Metrics

  • Defects detected per inspection
  • Lead time from detection to failure
  • Percentage of planned vs. unplanned work
  • Program coverage (% of equipment monitored)

Challenges and Solutions

Initial Investment

  • Challenge: Equipment, training, personnel costs
  • Solution: Phased implementation, ROI justification, start with critical equipment

Cultural Change

  • Challenge: Resistance to new approach
  • Solution: Training, demonstrated successes, management support

Data Overload

  • Challenge: Large volumes of data to analyze
  • Solution: Automated analysis, exception-based reporting, prioritization

Integration

  • Challenge: Connecting CM to CMMS and operations
  • Solution: Software integration, defined workflows, cross-training

Industry Standards

  • ISO 17359: Condition monitoring and diagnostics guidelines
  • ISO 13372: Vocabulary for condition monitoring
  • ISO 13373: Vibration condition monitoring procedures
  • ISO 18436: Personnel certification for condition monitoring

Predictive maintenance leverages condition monitoring technologies to transform maintenance from cost center to value driver. By predicting failures before they occur and optimizing intervention timing, PdM programs maximize equipment reliability and availability while minimizing total maintenance costs, delivering the promise of condition-based asset management in modern industrial operations.

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